Huangdan: 2025 will usher or Kondrashin bottom Ignatiev cycle

Updated: May 23, 2016  Views: 242

National Bureau of Statistics recently released the April general decline in macroeconomic data, which reflect the current Chinese economy is still downward pressure, and an associate professor at Antai College of Economics and Management Innovation and Strategy Department of Shanghai Jiaotong University Huangdan opinion, the Chinese economy and the global economy is the beginning of a big-band downlink, the future of China's economy is likely to face greater challenges.

'Economic cycles are inherent to interact with a result of economic system: a relatively stable difference between the person's income and consumption, because of this difference, the role of factor income distribution, rational expectations and corporate marginal propensity to consume and other mechanisms will the formation of the economic cycle. Therefore, the cyclical economic downturn will inevitably come. 'recently, the Shanghai Jiaotong University Antai College of economics and management, Institute of Chinese enterprise development Shanghai Jiaotong University-sponsored forum on Tenth deep thinking, Huangdan made such a prediction: after the end of 2015, three small end of 2018 and early 2022 after the recession, 2025 will mark the bottom of the human or Kondratieff cycle.

Huang Dan said that according to historical statistics Kondratiev cycle characteristics, one long wave callback after a long rise, fall also rebounded. Second, agriculture will be significant long-term depression. Third, there will be many major inventions, but in the next stage to get large-scale use. 'we should now be able to feel the advent of this era. in our field of vision appears more and more subversive revolutionary technology, such as 3D printing, air imaging, unmanned aerial vehicles, artificial intelligence etc., heralded the era of change turnover. '

At present, China's economic growth in the troika of investment, consumption and exports between the extremely close. Huangdan that since exports face global recessionary environment, continue to increase the likelihood of lower bound to affect investment and consumption. In addition, international alternative also showing a significant trend, the main factor is that, first, rising labor costs, many Chinese export orders gradually transferred to Southeast Asia. Second, Chinese enterprises manufacturing capacity still stay in the traditional process, the innovation lag. this also resulted in tremendous pressure faced by Chinese export trade, export growth slowed.

So, faced with the challenges currently facing economic 'troika', it should be how to deal with? In Huangdan opinion, national economic system is composed of four departments, namely, the production, income, distribution and consumption. Consumption is assigned when deciding, in turn, assigned revenue decided to wait. 'when we think of social development to a certain extent, the level of productivity to a certain extent, there is no problem in a production situation, economic problems must be focused on the distribution system. I always that now even post-modern society, the biggest problem is the income distribution of the human problem, the problem is not solved all that means the government will fail. '

Therefore, Huang Dan believes that supply-side reform and income distribution of China's economic restructuring is to solve the problems faced by two means necessary. Only by achieving decentralization, market discipline, and reduce government intervention, antitrust regulators regulate possible to improve the structure of income distribution .


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Traditional Chinese: 黃丹:2025年或將迎來康德拉季耶夫周期底部


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