Market Review Outlook
Thursday (May 19 week, the Fed's hawkish Minutes continue to put pressure on the market, the Fed Dudley speech the day to further clarify the Fed is still likely to raise interest rates in June, while the US data was mixed, but the dollar is still in the ascending interest rates expected to heat up in the context of the market continue to rise out of the wave of crude oil, although the US dollar index this week put pressure on oil prices, but it will bring Canadian supply disruptions in Nigeria and worries but to support prices, oil prices in the final of the long and short stalemate volatility in the market is almost flat.
United States May 14 week initial claims for unemployment benefits 278 000, 275 000 expected, before the value 294 000 The analysis pointed out that since mid-April First please indicate the number has been rising to regain momentum after the US economy was hampered in the first quarter .
Data, UK retail sales report more positive, year on year increase of 1.3%, higher than the expected 0.5%, the previous value was increased to 0.8% year on year increase of 4.3% was removed fuel price, year on year increase of 1.5% in an increase of 4.2%, the value of all the former two is up-regulated. US May 14 week initial claims for unemployment benefits 278 000, 275 000 expected, before the value of 294,000, indicating that the US economy in the first quarter to regain after being hampered power.
The summary of the specific content of the ECB: Monetary policy, the plan in June, began to buy corporate bonds, emphasizing the focus on the implementation of the latest confrontation on monetary policy measures must not be pushed up inflation idea of inflation, reflecting the market's inflation expectations. No worrying with the rebound in oil prices, oil prices and inflation expectations decoupling concerned, committed to push up the inflation target level of 2.0%. economic prospects, there was general recognition grounds for cautious optimism about the economy. economic growth risk exposure has slowed, but still tend to the downside. on the part of national reform efforts lack regretted days to be concerned about the eurozone current account, industrial orders difference between British, US existing home sales.
15:30 German manufacturing PMI in May
16:00 May manufacturing PMI in euro
21:45 US May Markit manufacturing PMI initial value
22:00 Euro May consumer confidence index
Major currencies remind
Europe is facing a crisis of confidence in a series, including the United Kingdom plans to vote on whether to remain in the EU, countries differ in views on how to deal with the influx of refugees from the Middle East and North Africa, as well as weak euro zone economic growth. As countries people the EU and its leaders on means to deal with the issue of appeal widespread dissatisfaction has led to skepticism in Europe and the rise of right-wing parties in Europe. due to the weak fundamentals, increasing overall firmer dollar, the ECB balance sheet expansion space still exist, especially directed to implement long-term refinancing operation of the plan. in the medium term the euro will remain downward trend over the past few months, the euro has been in a neglected state, but this market still remain cautious. 30 minutes from the map view, technology , the euro against the dollar above there is no pressure Comment: despite technical rebound, but the limited space above the pressure 1.1255-1.1290, 1.1195-1.1175 below support.
GBPUSD retreated from three-week high last week rose sharply, plunged over 100 points before closing at 1.4489, mainly due to the latest polls show that support for Europe off to stay slightly ahead of the European vote, sterling heard in the European plate rapid fall to below 1.45. in addition, US good data to support the dollar index continued strength also caused by pressure to the pound on Friday the British Treasury report released shows that if Britain decided to withdraw from the EU referendum in June, then the pound will depreciate an average of 12% Meanwhile, the pound will depreciate substantially increase the cost of living in the UK residents. today's Focus United States in May Markit manufacturing purchasing managers index initial speech and the Fed Williams from the 30 minute chart, the pound against the dollar downward trend. technology Comment: even if we can not exclude the possibility of continuous adjustment of its length of time should be limited upward pressure 1.4575-1.4615, 1.4465-1.4400 below support.
US and Japanese monetary policy rift remains the same, he said the Washington, Tokyo has intervened in currency markets to prevent appreciation of the yen For no reason, the exchange rate trend is still in an orderly situation. Saturday is Sendai, Japan to participate in the summit of the G7 US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew told Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso, to avoid competitive devaluations of great significance since January 29 this year, Japan introduced a negative interest rate policy, the appreciation of the yen against the dollar showed unilateral trend Technically, the same day:... remain cautious technology Review: RSI technical indicators just reached 50% of the neutral zone, reversing the upward pressure above 110.25-110.60, 109.65-109.25 below support.
Australian dollar AUDUSD
This week, the Australian dollar sideways consolidation likely, the market is closely watching the upcoming RBA Governor Stevens speech on Tuesday. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the market will focus on the wording of its policy, in particular 3 May rate cut the reason for the first quarter business investment data soon to be released Thursday by the degree of concern than in the past and therefore may decrease. Taking into account the rise in the stock market, credit spreads narrowed again, we believe that the Australian dollar decline in the short term or limited space. for now, after the Fed rate hike is expected to rise and the RBA cut interest rates, the Australian dollar may record lows for many years from the 30 minutes chart, intraday: the upward trend technical Review:. RSI technical indicators run upward pressure above 0.7275-0.7300 below support 0.7210-. 0.7185.
US dollar against the Canadian dollar within a narrow range after a rebound bottom rise, currently hovering at 1.3110 line. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce said that the international crude oil prices rebounded sharply from February lows but prices upward and off, different periods of the Canadian dollar trend highlights changes between the Canadian dollar and crude oil related. However, the recent rise in oil prices is not only against the falling dollar, but fell against other currencies. this shows that even if the recovery in oil prices, domestic factors also make Canada the Canadian dollar to depreciate. 30 minutes from the chart, the same day inside: short-term key resistance at 1.25 Comment: even if we can not rule out the possibility of continued technical rebound, its duration should be limited upward pressure 1.3160-1.3190 below support 1.3070-1.3040...
USDCHF intraday trend analysis: RSI indicators show trend as the US dollar bullish month rate hike expectations generally cautious bearish influence from the 30 minutes chart, the same day:... The rise Technical Review: RSI technical indicators run trend of complexity tend to rise above the pressure 0.9125-0.92, below the support 0.884-0.875 30 minutes from the chart, the same day: the rise technical Review:. RSI technical indicators run trend line rising above the pressure 0.9925-0.9950. 0.9860-0.9805 below support.
Minutes of the Fed meeting on interest rates in April unexpectedly revealing the 'hawks' tendency, making the market for the Fed to raise interest rates sharply during the year increased by 2 times or more expected, the dollar rose, risk assets frustration. This is the last rate hike in December, the Fed released six months to hike the strongest signal. local time on may 18 released the minutes of the Fed's April meeting said that if future data showed the US economy continues to improve, the Fed may raise interest rates at the June meeting. stronger US dollar weighed on gold do more momentum, gold hit $ 1300 / oz unsuccessful, it is likely in the short term as the highest level of technology on the surface, the same day: there is no pressure technical Review:. RSI technical indicators run trend line down the top. 1261.5-1269 pressure, below the support 1244-1237.
NYMEX crude oil OIL
A plurality of oil-producing countries have heard the emergency supply or production news, the market that the oil market has begun to re-balance or even suspect May have caught short supply situation possible. Recently, the international crude oil market supply disruptions is the largest oil producer in Canada , forest fires in Alberta led Canada's oil production from its average level in the first quarter fell by 1.3 million barrels / day. Nigeria's oil ministry said, Nigeria's oil production has declined by nearly 40 percent, to 140 million barrels / day for more than 22 years, the lowest yield. Reuters reported that, because of the militants launched a series of attacks on oil facilities, and the accident damaged the Exxon Mobil's oil pipeline in Nigeria daily loss of about 80 million barrels of crude oil. technical on the same day: there is no pressure technical Review:. RSI show a further decline in pressure above 48.34-48.60, 47.25-46.90 below support.
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