CICC: A share of short-term volatility will continue to focus on three things this week, tangled

Updated: May 23, 2016  Views: 271
CICC: A share of short-term volatility will continue to focus on three things this week, tangled

CICC in the latest A-share Strategy Weekly said, short-term volatility will continue to tangle, need to pay close attention to the recent SFC, the fund industry association and exchange relevant aspects of the regulatory approach, the United States is expected to raise interest rates again, which may affect commodities and emerging markets , 5, 6-month ban and a reduction of the pressure. on the whole, it is recommended in the short term continue to focus on profitability and valuation uncertainty, wait for more positive signals.

One week policy

Shock adjustment, turnover still shrinking the market continues to digest and adjust expectations and economic policy, US interest rates are expected to further strengthen the supervision and capital market changes also affect investor risk appetite last week, the Shanghai Composite Index shock adjustment, small cap stocks slightly better performance from the industry point of view and themes, OLED, rare earth, lithium batteries and other new energy vehicles and the market is still a hot topic, the weakest performance since the beginning of the TMT sector also rebounded, the financial sector also performed by the market impact of the maintenance of stability better, aviation, tourism and catering Utilities relatively weak.

Market Outlook

Shock tangled continued focus on marginal changes. The main reason for the recent market downturn on the one hand that the sustainability of the economic recovery concerns, on the other hand is the tone of the policy led to weak market risk appetite last week President Xi stressed the deep restructuring of the meeting 'Short-term control measures introduced at the present stage, we should pay attention into line with the objectives of the reform, promote the formation of a sound institutional mechanism', which means that the tone of the policy might shift from a steady growth in the first quarter to gradually shift the balance of 'supply-side reform and steady economic growth 'even more emphasis on supply-side structural reforms to capacity, supply-side reform measures like deleveraging may bring short-term pain, however, including fiscal and taxation system, the reform of state-owned enterprises, household and land, social security and other fields the reforms were further help reduce the barriers faced by urbanization, help unleash the growth potential of China's medium and long term. from the rhythm of time, and the capacity to bring the throes of deleveraging may be in immediate short-term, structural reforms and other measures the positive impact of likely be gradual. the strategy for 2016 is to set the tone for the theme of 'Poor people want change,' look to the future, on the one hand concerned the supply side reforms may bring to productivity and short-term deleveraging pains at the same time, it also requires attention to such pains accompanied by pains or Forced out helps to release the long-term growth potential of the Chinese reform measures expected short-term market volatility will continue tangled, need to pay close attention:

1 Commission recently, the fund industry associations and exchanges in the starting and refinancing projects, fund accounts and subsidiaries, private equity funds, suspension and resumption of the system and other aspects of strengthening the system construction and supervision, standardize the behavior of the capital markets, but also short-term investor sentiment unavoidable disturbance, attention refinancing exact progress of the relevant aspects of the regulatory attitude,

2 US rate hike expectations repeatedly, may affect commodities and emerging markets. Last week, a net outflow of foreign funds to continue China's stock and still larger scale,

35, June ban and reduction of pressure also need to focus on the whole, from the operational point of recommendation in the short term continue to focus on profitability and valuation uncertainty, wait for more positive signals.

Sector and stock recommendations: continue to focus on profitability and valuation, concerns marginal policy changes and reforms.

Configuration 1 Continue to follow the idea of earnings and valuation perspective, overweight large consumer food and beverage, pharmaceutical faucet, appliances and valuation is not high, stable dividends or catalyst for price increases or policy reform, infrastructure and utilities (aviation, airports, railways, electricity, etc.,

2 Followers topic: Chinese enterprises in overseas mergers and acquisitions (M & A scale overseas this year has been close to a quarter last year, many of whom are well-known domestic and foreign enterprises, state-owned enterprise reform, Shenzhen and Hong Kong through, MSCI inclusion A shares expected, the first batch of 7 new shares.

Recent concerns

High Frequency Data Industry 1: In addition to real estate, infrastructure-related investments, the amount of price data, some slowdown in consumer data also need to pay attention,

2 US rate hike expectations,

3 reforms progress

4 capital market: multi-level supervision to strengthen, in the distribution, delisting, may adjust the trading system, as well as Shenzhen and Hong Kong through three new board stratification, MSCI progress in the inclusion of A shares,


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Traditional Chinese: 中金公司:A股短期仍將震蕩糾結 本周關註三件事


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